While the Federal Reserve confirmed that rates should remain steady for some more time, since the economic growth is still in its early stage, the European Central Bank is already looking for a good way out. The change in market prospective could support the Euro currency over the medium/long term and penalize the U.S. dollar.
The U.S. economy is rebounding, despite some signs of slowdown here and there. In October, the ISM non-manufacturing index was practically unchanged at 50.6. Only one of the four segments of the index declined in the month, while three out of eighteen industries reported some improvement in job numbers. Business activity increased for the third straight month and growth is expected to continue, since both unfilled and new orders moved up for the second straight month supported by the strong export numbers. The manufacturing index rose instead to 55.7 in October. It overcame expectations by growing at the fastest rate in more than three years. Here, again, exports supported the service industry, as thirteen out of eighteen industries performed better than expected. The labor market remains at the contrary the weakest spot. In October, the U.S. economy lost 190,000 positions (-170,000 expected) versus September’s 219,000. The unemployment rate is now at 10.2%, compared to September’s 9.8%. It corresponds to the highest rate of the past 26 years and not to far from the post-war record of 10.8% reached in 1982.
Angelo Airaghi is a Commodity Trading Advisor, registered with the National Futures Association and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. He has been an active professional since 1990 working for major international financial companies. In the past 10 years, Angelo Airaghi has been an analyst and commentator for national and international media.
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